The 90% Rule
Gordon's long-term studies revealed a sobering statistic: 90% of new colonies fail within their first year.
Young colonies face: predation, desiccation, resource scarcity, inability to respond effectively to threats. Only the survivors build the 20-30 year colonies we study.
Developmental Stages
- Founding (Year 1) — Queen alone, digging, laying first eggs. Extremely vulnerable.
- Ergonomic (Years 2-3) — First workers emerge. Colony grows but behavior is erratic.
- Expansion (Years 4-7) — Rapid growth. Foraging patterns stabilize.
- Maturity (Years 8-20) — Full size. Stable behavior. Produces reproductives.
- Senescence (Years 20+) — Colony may decline. Wisdom peaks.
Why Young Colonies Fail
- Too few ants → statistical instability
- Overreaction to stimuli → resource waste
- No environmental memory → repeating mistakes
- No superhighways → inefficient foraging
Application: Our Growth Gates
This is why we implement growth gates:
- Gate 1 (10 ants): Prove concept
- Gate 2 (100 ants): Prove architecture
- Gate 3 (1,000 ants): Prove economics
- Gate 4 (10,000 ants): Prove emergence
- Gate 5 (100,000 ants): Prove stability
Each gate must be passed before scaling further. Wisdom comes from age, not haste.
"Only mature colonies reproduce. The colony must prove itself before it can create offspring."