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Colony / Signals

Signals & Decisions

Understanding what the colony sees and how it decides

Signal Timeline

Signals are generated when patterns detect market conditions that match their criteria. Each signal includes a direction (LONG/SHORT), confidence level, and the market state at the time. Green signals were profitable, red signals resulted in losses.

Regime Performance Heatmap

Performance breakdown by market regime and volatility level. Green cells indicate profitable conditions, red cells indicate challenging conditions. The colony learns to avoid certain regime/volatility combinations over time.

State Performance

Win rate and P&L breakdown by market state. The colony tracks performance in each state to learn which conditions are favorable for trading and which to avoid.

Confidence Calibration

How well does the colony's confidence match actual outcomes? A well-calibrated system should have 60% win rate when it predicts 60% confidence. The diagonal line shows perfect calibration - being above means overconfidence, below means underconfidence.

How Signals Work

Signals emerge from the collective behavior of pattern agents. Each pattern monitors specific market conditions and emits a signal when conditions match its criteria.

The colony aggregates signals from multiple patterns, weights them by their historical performance (pheromone strength), and makes a final decision. This creates emergent intelligence where the collective wisdom outperforms any individual pattern.

Signal Flow
1 Pattern detects market condition
2 Signal emitted with confidence
3 Colony aggregates weighted signals
4 Decision made: LONG, SHORT, or HOLD
5 Outcome updates pattern pheromones